(sahara-sahel.org) – Humanitarian, security, climate, and governance challenges across the Sahel are expected to intensify in 2026, with rising humanitarian needs, persistent terrorist threats, and the growing impacts of climate change highlighting the urgency of coordinated regional and international action. At the same time, renewed diplomatic engagement, strengthened cross-border cooperation, and UN-led coordination efforts are showing promising results, although progress remains constrained by funding shortages, institutional weaknesses, and governance challenges.
Research and development initiatives are advancing resilience through innovations such as AI-driven dust storm forecasting, improved soil health laboratory networks, and stronger climate-sensitive governance frameworks. Across these areas, experts and international organizations consistently emphasize the need for integrated, long-term approaches that combine humanitarian assistance, security, sustainable development, environmental adaptation, and local capacity building to support stability and resilience in the Sahel.
According to a UNOWAS release, humanitarian needs across six Sahelian countries are projected to escalate sharply in 2026 as conflict, mass displacement, climate disruption, and economic stress cripple access to essential services. While 24.3 million people require assistance and protection, severe funding shortfalls have forced relief agencies to target aid to just 8.3 million of the most vulnerable. In response, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs is calling for increased international funding, improved aid access, stronger civilian safeguards, and better alignment between development, peace, and humanitarian operations.
A White Rose eTheses Online study, to enhance short-term dust storm forecasting across the Sahara and Sahel—where airborne particles severely impact public health, transport, and energy systems— introduces DustCast, a generative machine-learning model that outperforms traditional methods by delivering probabilistic predictions up to five hours in advance. Alongside developing this early-warning framework, the research evaluates key atmospheric reanalysis datasets and highlights systemic modeling gaps to provide actionable strategies for upgrading weather models and expanding operational support with African meteorological agencies.
A press release by the United Nations states that although West Africa and the Sahel face escalating terrorist threats and complex insurgent tactics—including the use of drones, encrypted messaging, and cryptocurrency—UN Special Representative Leonardo Santos Simão had to inform the Security Council that intensified diplomatic efforts are beginning to foster vital cross-border cooperation. To build on these gains, Simão urged the international community to sustain diplomatic engagement, reinforce regional security frameworks, and address core governance issues to support democratic transitions and prevent further instability.
Briefing the Security Council on West Africa and the Sahel, UN Special Representative Leonardo Santos Simão has called for strengthened regional dialogue and cooperation to counter expanding terrorist threats across the central Sahel, northern Nigeria, and coastal states, as laid out in a UNOWAS press release. Pointing to renewed diplomatic efforts between ECOWAS and the Alliance of Sahel States, he emphasized that military action alone is insufficient and advocated for a unified strategy combining security, governance, humanitarian aid, and sustainable development.
The Regional Hub for Fertilizer and Soil Health, in order to address critical agricultural challenges across West Africa and the Sahel, is strengthening national laboratory networks by tackling equipment shortages, utility instability, poor quality control, and outdated data systems in countries like Nigeria, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Togo. Through standardized analytical methods, targeted infrastructure upgrades, staff training, and international partnerships, the initiative has already established Liberia’s first operational reference soil laboratory.
Another update from the Regional Hub for Fertilizer and Soil Health is in the process of boosting food security and agricultural productivity across West Africa and the Sahel, the Regional Hub for Fertilizer and Soil Health is upgrading national laboratory capacities by delivering equipment, technical training, and standardized analytical processes to fix persistent infrastructure and quality control gaps.
The United Nations has evaluated UN cross-pillar coordination across ten Sahelian nations from 2013 to 2025. A system-wide UN review highlights how joint analysis and cross-border initiatives added value despite being constrained by unclear roles, limited funding, and a dependence on individual leadership over formal structures. To overcome these institutional gaps, the assessment advocates for adaptable, nationally owned strategies, transparent accountability, stronger resident coordinator leadership, and sustainable pooled financing to enhance cross-border operations.
Drawing on insights from the Sahel Resilience Partnership, this SIPRI policy brief outlines how donors can strengthen the humanitarian–development–peace (HDP) nexus by transitioning from fragmented projects to flexible, multi-year funding for integrated, multisectoral programs. It urges funding strategies that combine shared data systems, local research, and conflict-sensitive interventions across education, climate adaptation, and governance to build local institutional legitimacy and foster long-term community resilience.
By examining the intersection of climate change, peace, security, and the rule of law across West Africa and the Sahel, this study by the United Nations highlights climate change as a threat multiplier that exacerbates resource scarcity, displacement, and environmental crime while placing immense strain on fragile legal institutions. To effectively counter these compounding risks, the research demonstrates that achieving sustainable climate adaptation and preventing conflict requires reinforcing inclusive resource governance, building climate-resilient judicial systems, and prioritizing people-centered climate justice to safeguard vulnerable populations.
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