By examining the correlation between the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and important climatic indices like the Global Mean Temperature (GMT), Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and North Tropical Atlantic Index (NTA), this study explores the growing variability of drought in the Sahel region. The study finds important regional patterns of drought intensification, especially in the western and southeastern Sahel, using trend analysis, cross-correlation, and a unique SHAP-based clustering technique. While AMO and NTA affect regional drought variability, strong negative relationships with GMT and IPWP indicate their dominance in escalating drought. With implications for Sahelian water resource planning and climate adaptation, the incorporation of explainable AI approaches provides a new framework for comprehending and controlling drought risks.
https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/29/6043/2025/hess-29-6043-2025.pdf