In collaboration with local actors in Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger, Ethiopia, and Somalia, Oxfam conducted pilot studies between 2024 and early 2025 to investigate the relationship between climate change and fragility and conflict. The study, which used community-centered research techniques, discovered that rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, droughts, and floods threaten livelihoods, cause displacement, heighten competition for resources, and put stress on already vulnerable institutions. Farmers and pastoralists are directly affected by resource shortages, while vulnerable groups—such as women, young people, the elderly, and people with disabilities—bear disproportionate responsibilities. In spite of this, communities are essential to resilience, with women and young people spearheading programs in local planning, mediation, savings organizations, and collective farming. Although inclusive and conflict-sensitive adaptation can also operate as a peace multiplier, the assessments emphasize that climate change acts as a threat multiplier. In order to create resilient and cohesive communities throughout the Sahel and Horn of Africa, programmatic recommendations place a strong emphasis on integrated approaches that connect climate adaptation, governance, and peacebuilding. These approaches include investing in leadership led by women and youth, ensuring equitable access to water, diversifying livelihoods, anticipatory planning, and strengthening early warning systems.
https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10546/621782/dp-local-solutions-global-urgency-13022026-en.pdf (English)
https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/10546/621782/2/dp-local-solutions-global-urgency-13022026-fr.pdf (French)